Apple is about to experience its most significant challenge in decades
By now you’re likely aware that Apple is probably weeks away from launching its own virtual reality headset. I always caution readers not to put too much stock in any one rumor, or in any one aspect of an Apple rumor, but this is well beyond the “where there’s smoke there’s fire” stage. Apple’s virtual reality headset is coming, and it’s going to be by far the company’s biggest new product launch challenges in decades.
Yes, entering the mobile phone market was a huge challenge. Yes, entering the watch market was a huge challenge. But in those cases it was easy to see what the potential upside was and what the potential customer benefit was. With Apple’s virtual reality headset, it’s not clear at all what the benefit proposition will be.
I’m very interested in hearing what Apple has to say about the headset. What can it do? What are the primary use cases for it? What value will it provide to me? What will the cost be? But this is the first time that I can ever remember not being personally interested in a rumored new Apple product. I immediately knew how the iPhone would improve my life years before Apple was rumored to be releasing a mobile phone. I immediately knew how an Apple smartwatch would benefit me, even before we knew what Apple Watch would be exactly. I don’t know what an Apple-branded headset would do for me, particularly that would cause me to see past a potentially monster price tag and the clumsiness and uncomfortable nature of that type of product.
Just about everyone carries a mobile phone and a large percentage of the population wears a watch. But VR headsets are still a very niche product, and currently aimed mostly at gaming. Apple tends to make products for the masses and is historically very bad at gaming. So what’s the story around this product?
In addition to the “what’s in it for me” challenge, Apple will also likely have to face the challenge of either killing this product if it flops with the public or keep working on it over a period of several years in which it keeps improving the technology and lowering the unit cost. It may well be that over time as the public gets more comfortable with the narrative around the product, and as the device becomes less cumbersome and less expensive that Apple can eventually build a real product segment out of this idea. But I don’t see any scenario (based on the rumors and my own limited imagination, mind you!) in which this becomes an iPhone-like immediate hit product. So Apple is likely going to need to be very wise about whether it keeps slowly building this thing over a long period of time, or whether it has to kill a product that doesn’t find a home.
It’s certainly going to be fascinating to watch, and a huge test of the Tim Cook/Jeff Williams era at Apple. Tim Cook doesn’t need to do a single thing to secure his legacy at Apple. He’s been wildly successful as CEO replacing a seemingly irreplaceable legend. But he could tank (or at least seriously taint) his legacy with a massive flop. I’m willing to give Apple the benefit of the doubt after decades of proving their critics wrong, but I’m officially in “impress me” mode with this product.