How the Apple/Twitter war ended… for now

After Elon Musk showered Apple with unsavory accusations on Twitter, the CEOs of Apple and Twitter met face-to-face.

On Tuesday I wrote an in-depth piece about the volley of attacks that Twitter CEO Elon Musk lobbed at Apple the previous day. Elon was attacking Apple on various grounds including Apple’s retreat from advertising on Twitter, the App Store’s sales commission fees (which Musk characterized as “a tax on the internet), and allegations of Apple censorship.

On Wednesday of last week, and in something of a surprise, Musk tweeted a video from the grounds of Apple Park and said, “Thanks @tim_cook for taking me around Apple’s beautiful HQ.” At first I wasn’t sure if the tweet was genuine or some kind of troll, but the two CEOs really did meet. We don’t know who initiated the meeting, or much of what they discussed. My guess is that Tim’s people reached out to Elon’s people and set up the meeting. Apple had a pretty rough PR week between Musk’s war on Apple, and bad press regarding China, AirDrop, and protestors (all of which I wrote about here.) The meeting could have been Apple’s way to tamp down one area of that bad PR.

So what came out of the meeting? Elon Musk continued:

Good conversation. Among other things, we resolved the misunderstanding about Twitter potentially being removed from the App Store. Tim was clear that Apple never considered doing so.

Again, I don’t think Apple ever threatened to remove Twitter from the App Store, and Musk didn’t publish any documentary evidence in support of his claim that they had done so. But if Elon Musk had legitimate reasons to think that was on the table, it’s good that Cook reassured him that Apple wasn’t planning to do that.

What about Apple re-investing in advertising on Twitter? I still haven’t seen a promoted tweet from Apple since Musk took over the company, but a few days after Musk met with Cook, he said on a Twitter Spaces audio session that Apple has (or will) resume advertising on Twitter. If true, that’s also good for Apple/Twitter relations. I’ll be eagerly watching Twitter for Apple ads.

Now for perhaps Musk’s real biggest long-term gripe: Apple’s 30% App Store commission fee. Twitter does enough annual revenue on the App Store that they wouldn’t qualify for the 15% commission fee required of any developer making up to a million dollars in annual App Store revenue. If Musk is serious about making Twitter Blue a serious source of revenue for Twitter, and if he wants to continue that entirely as an in-app purchase, he’s going to have to share 30% of that revenue with Apple (at least from in-app purchases made on iOS). I don’t think there’s any way that Cook would (or even could) agree to give Twitter a lower commission percentage.

Pure speculation, but my guess is that Cook managed to calm Musk down, in part by reassuring him that Apple wasn’t going to cut Twitter off from Apple’s customers, and by pledging to commit to some amount of ad spend on Twitter.

So what happens next? I think Musk is still unhappy about paying Apple 30% of Twitter Blue revenue going forward. He’s been pretty clear in the past that he thinks the State should bring antitrust action against Apple. If he wanted to pull a stunt similar to the Epic Games stunt he praised on Monday (meaning publicly flaunt Apple’s rules and add a second payment option on iOS), he might think he has enough leverage over Apple to get away with it. After all, with an incoming Republican majority in Congress who are sympathetic to Musk taking over Twitter, it would look really bad for Apple to suspend Twitter from the App Store, even if Twitter flaunts the App Store’s rules.

Personally I hope cooler heads prevail and Musk, Cook, Twitter, and Apple all work well together. Musk hasn’t gone after Apple since the meeting with Cook, and the two CEOs even followed each other on Twitter, but this will be an interesting relationship to keep an eye on going forward.