Is Apple going to release it’s long-rumored VR headset next week at WWDC?

The latest on what may be going on with Apple’s long-rumored new product category.

For the last coupe of years, one of the big rumors has been that Apple is working on developing a product in a new category for the company: a virtual reality (VR) headset. Could we get an official announcement of this product next Monday at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC)? There’s some reason to think it could happen. Since January of 2021, a possible 2022 release target has been mentioned. Just a couple of weeks ago, Mark Gurman of Bloomberg reported the following:

Apple Inc. executives previewed its upcoming mixed-reality headset to the company’s board last week, indicating that development of the device has reached an advanced stage, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

If accurate, it’s pretty rare for a reporter to get a scoop about Apple having shown a working prototype of an upcoming new product to its board of directors. This wouldn’t necessarily mean that the product will be announced at WWDC, but it would suggest that it’s fairly far along in the development process. Gurman goes on:

In recent weeks, Apple has also ramped up development of rOS -- short for reality operating system -- the software that will run on the headset, according to other people familiar with the work. That progress, coupled with the board presentation, suggests that the product’s debut could potentially come within the next several months.

realityOS is another thing we’ve been hearing more and more about over the last year or so. I think much of it is speculation on the part of interested developers, but if Apple is going to release a VR product, it’s going to need an operating system. It would certainly be based on iOS, but would be specifically tailored for manipulating objects in virtual 3D space. There’s no guarantee that there would be a full-fledged App Store at launch, but Apple would need third-party developers onboard if this product is to have any hope of being successful.

Ok, but why think Apple’s VR headset might debut at WWDC? I think it’s a confluence of rumors and speculation. First the alleged presentation to the board recently. Then the fact that if Apple is going to release a product that will need developer support, what better place to introduce it than at a developers conference where Apple can begin offering sessions on how to build apps for it? Finally, there’s the issue of trademarks. Parker Ortolani discussed this recently:

There are two trademarks for “realityOS” that are currently active and owned by a company called Realityo Systems LLC. I can’t find any details about this LLC, much like the other shell corporations that Apple has formed in the past to trademark other operating system names. These two “realityOS” trademarks are also the only ones owned by the LLC.

And:

The marks have a deadline for international filing on June 8, 2022 which is just two days after the WWDC keynote. Apple has historically transferred trademarks for announced products from their shell corporations a few days following the keynote. The USPTO also notes that the mark owner has not shown proof of use anywhere, so the trademark is intended for an unreleased product. In addition to this, the same week that the marks were filed, an opposition was instituted against another company’s use of “REALITY OS” which means they intend to use it.

That all sounds pretty compelling, but not everyone is so sure this product will launch next week. Here’s supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, writing on Twitter:

It still takes some time before Apple AR/MR headset enters mass production, so I don't think Apple will release AR/MR headset and rumored realityOS at WWDC this year. Apple's competitors worldwide can't wait to see the hardware spec and OS design for Apple's AR/MR headset.

And:

I'm sure that if Apple announces AR/MR headset and its OS at WWDC, competitors will immediately kick off copycat projects and happily copy Apple's excellent ideas, and hit the store shelves before Apple launches in 2023.

I think every writer should be clear about their biases, and I admit that I’ve been less than enthusiastic about the prospects for an Apple VR headset. I think virtual reality experiences and gaming are fascinating, but I wonder if VR really represents a major look at the future of computing and communicating, or if it’s as faddish as 3D movies. (I don’t have a dogmatic view either way, I’m just skeptical that VR will become a major product category.) I also wonder what the primary purpose of such a device would be. Is it for gaming? Or for 3D remote video conferencing? Or for scientific and industrial work? And who would this product be for? In the past this product has been rumored to be priced at $3000. That kind of price tag would severely limit the potential customer base for an Apple product. Consider what I wrote last year on the topic:

True, Apple does make and sell high end computing devices like the very high end Mac Pro workstation Macs, but they also sell the Mac mini for as low as $699 and feature a range of Mac hardware at various prices between those two desktop models. Similarly, the iPhone retails for as much as $1500, but you can also buy a brand new one for $399. AirPods Max, AirPods, etc.

Another example: Apple Watch. Sure, Apple sold a solid gold edition for $17,000 when Apple Watch went on sale in 2015. But they also sold a mid-range model starting at $550, and the entry level Apple Watch Sport at $349. There was one for everyone, not just the very wealthy.

While I’m fairly tepid on the idea of Apple selling a VR headset, I’m very interested hearing the story behind how they’ll position such a product.

Ok, but is it coming on Monday at WWDC? I’m skeptical, but it’s certainly possible. Again, it does make sense for Apple to release a product like this in front of developers who they hope will get to work on apps for it, but historic precedence suggests that’s not a requirement. The iPhone was announced at Macworld in January of 2007. The Apple Watch was announced at a special event in September of 2014. New product categories tend to be announced months in advance of shipping products to give Apple time to clear regulatory hurdles without those agencies spilling the beans before Apple has had a chance to break the news to the world. Fall 2022 strikes me as another likely time for this to get announced, assuming it truly is far enough along to get announced this year at all. Certainly something to watch out for with interest as a possible announcement on Monday though.