Report: No new Macs until early 2023
Following the announcement of the iPhone 14 series of phones in September, there was a lot of speculation that we’d also get new iPads and new MacBooks before the end of the year. This month we did indeed get the release of new iPad and iPad Pro models, along with a new Apple TV 4K. That led to quite a bit of speculation that we’d get new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models powered by M2 Pro and M2 Max chips. The latest report by Mark Gurman of Bloomberg throws cold water on that theory. From his piece today:
I’m told that Apple is aiming to introduce the upgraded models—including M2-based versions of the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros—in the first quarter of calendar 2023 and has tied the launches to the upcoming macOS Ventura 13.3 and iOS 16.3. Those software updates are expected to debut between early February and the beginning of March.
We’re all still adjusting our expectations for Apple silicon Mac refresh cycles since we’re still relatively early in this new reality. An 18-month refresh cycle instead of a 12-month refresh cycle certainly makes sense, and it falls in line with the gap between the M1 MacBook Air (released late 2020) and the M2 MacBook Air (released summer 2022). Of course it’s entirely possible that there will be short and longer gaps between computer refreshes down the road based on circumstances.
The big question for me, will the new M2-based MacBook Pros be using chips based on the M1 and M2’s current 5nm process, or will the new MacBook Pro be running on a new 3nm process? From Gurman’s piece:
Apple also may be waiting until it can build chips using the 3-nanometer process (the first M2 chips and the M1 are based on 5-nanometer technology).
“5nm” and “3nm” refer to how many transistors can be built into the chip. The more you can pack into the chip, the more power efficient the chip can be while also increasing performance. If the next MacBook Pro is based on a 3nm chip, it should see a significant increase in power and power efficiency. If it does move to 3nm, will they go ahead and refer to these chips as M3 Pro and M3 Max, or would Apple still consider this part of the M2 family?
It’s going to be fascinating to get answers to these questions. We may just have to wait until early next year to find out.