The shocking prediction a tech CEO just made about the Mac
What will the 2020s hold for Apple? One industry leader thinks it could be huge for the Mac.
We’re living through interesting times for Apple, particularly for those of us who are long-time Mac users. After a few years in the last decade where many questioned Apple’s longterm commitment to the Mac, Apple has demonstrated that the Mac is still an important strategic priority. We’ve gotten great new Mac hardware designs, and we’re currently in the midst of the biggest transition in the Mac’s history: the move from Intel chips to Apple silicon via the still-new M1 family of chips. And if one tech CEO is right, the 2020s could be a massive decade for the Mac. Here’s Jamf CEO Dean Hager in his annual looking ahead to the new year blog post:
Looking ahead long-term, I truly believe by the end of this decade there will be more Apple devices used in businesses worldwide than Windows-based devices.
This is a bold claim, but I think it’s entirely possible, especially when you consider that he’s not just talking about the Mac, but also iPhone, iPad, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and potentially unreleased future Apple product categories. The Mac has experienced a huge surge in corporate fleets over the last few years. There are a lot of reasons for that, but the popularity of the iPhone helped chart a course for the Mac in enterprise IT environments. But Hager goes on to make a much, much bolder claim next:
In the United States, Apple momentum is even stronger— which is why I expect Apple Mac to overtake Windows market share in the enterprise by the time we reach the end of 2029.
The phrasing “Apple Mac” is a bit odd, but I take him to mean that he expects the Macintosh to have a larger presence in enterprise than Windows PCs by the end of the decade. Now look, Hager runs a company that is the industry leader in Apple enterprise management tools. That means it’s in his interest to project a bullish future for the Mac in the IT world, but I’ve been following his annual predictions for years and I don’t recall him ever swinging for the fences quite like this. I think he’s sincere here.
I wouldn’t bet on the Mac beating out Windows PCs by the end of the decade. There are just so many PC vendors and longstanding business relationships. But I wouldn’t totally dismiss it either. I’ve always had a glass-is-half-full approach to Apple’s future prospects, even going back more than two decades ago when it really looked like Apple was on the ropes. Optimism about the future of the Mac has always served me well. The Mac had a huge 2021, with shipment growth that was about double the rate of the PC industry as a whole. Even before COVID, more and more companies were adopting the practice of letting employees choose whether they wanted a Mac or a Windows PC, and with the explosion in remote work that trend is only accelerating. Or as Hager put it:
I might as well just say it: this is the time for Apple in the enterprise. As of today, there are three things driving Apple. First, hybrid and remote work drives IT consumerization, which drives Apple. Second, the need to attract and retain talent from a younger workforce that leans heavily toward Apple. And lest we forget: this year Apple built the hottest laptops on the planet, powered by the M1 chip.
Will the 2020s be the year the Mac overtakes Windows in the enterprise market? I can’t wait to find out.