When to expect the revised MacBook Air and other M2-powered Macs to arrive.

Let’s put our thinking caps on, and attempt to discern Apple’s 2022 (and beyond) Mac lineup updates.

The iPhone and Apple Watch cadence is easy to predict. We get new models introduced each September like clockwork. For the iPad Pro, we tend to get new models every eighteen months. Apple TV updates come… whenever Apple gets around to them. But what about the Mac? In the Intel era, Apple was somewhat at the mercy of Intel. That dependence was a big factor in Apple deciding to design their own chips for the Mac. With Intel, Apple had to design around another company’s chip, and that often meant waiting until Intel could deliver them something that met the thermal requirements they were targeting. Now Apple can design the Mac and the chip in tandem. But we’re still getting a feel for what the Apple Silicon Mac product refresh cycle is, so a little fun speculation is in order regarding the next round of new Macs, particularly as we presumably head toward the “M2” era of chips for the Mac.

We’re nearly two years from when Apple announced the Apple Silicon transition at WWDC 2020, and this Fall will mark two years since the first Apple Silicon Macs shipped. Apple has now transitioned every Mac in the lineup away from Intel. All except the Mac Pro. So far none of the Apple Silicon Macs have seen their first revision. So what will the product refresh cycle look like for the Mac going forward, and when can we expect the next crop of Macs to hit, particularly the much-anticipated new MacBook Air?

The next event at which Apple could conceivably announce new Macs is at WWDC in early June. Apple could conceivably announce and preview the M2 line of chips, but due to the Osborn Effect, which dictates that pre-announcing a new product months in advance leads people to delay their purchases instead of buying the current products, I wouldn’t expect Apple to announce the new line of chips without also announcing a new Mac to pair with them. A lot of people in the rumor mill think Apple could announce the long-awaited Mac Pro at WWDC this year. But would that ship with an M2 chip of some type, or something M1 family of chips? Maybe dual or quad M1 Ultra chips?

I tend to think if a Mac Pro comes at WWDC it will be running on an M1 variant. When Apple rolled out the M1 family they first revealed the M1 chip, then the M1 Pro and M1 Max, and finally the M1 Ultra. It would make sense for them to follow that pattern again. So either we get an M1-powered Mac Pro at WWDC in a few weeks, or we don’t get one at all until sometime next year when the M2 line is appropriately ramped up.

If that’s the case, I expect the M2 to debut with the new MacBook Air this Fall. As you can see from the concept image above, many are expecting the new MacBook Air to be more squared off, similar to the design of the new MacBook Pro, only thinner. They’re also expected to come in an array of fun colors, as the M1 iMac now does. If so, I’m a fan of the move. Apple’s Mac lineup has been sadly bereft of colors for too long.

What about the Mac mini and the 13-inch MacBook Pro? Those two transitioned to M1 at the same time as the MacBook Air in the Fall of 2020. There’s no particular reason why they’d all need to be revised at the same time, other than the fact that they’re all approaching two years since their last updates. What Apple does with the 13-inch MacBook Pro is an interesting question. I can’t see it getting an M2 chip without some sort of redesign. Will Apple leave it mostly unchanged apart from removing the Touch Bar? Will it continue to bear the MacBook Pro name, or will Apple remove the “Pro” and just call it MacBook?

As for the Mac mini, does it get a substantial redesign? I had wondered if Apple might give it a radically smaller form factor, but given that the Mac Studio matches the current Mac mini’s dimensions (only being taller), my guess is that if anything the Mac mini retains it’s overall shape but perhaps gets a bit thinner. I’ll also be curious to see if Apple offers the Mac mini with an M2 Pro. I don’t see them offering an M2 Max since the M1 Max is the entry level chip in the Mac Studio, and Apple will want to keep those products as distinct as possible. But Apple does still sell a higher-end Mac mini powered by an Intel chip, so it stands to reason they eventually plan to sell a higher-end Apple Silicon version.

So will two years be the new product lifecycle refresh point for Mac models going forward? If so, we won’t see M2 Pro and M2 Max-powered MacBook Pros until next Fall. Or might Apple shift to an eighteen month Mac refresh cycle where possible as with the iPad Pro? If so we’d see new MacBook Pros next Spring.

We may know at least a little more about this strategy at WWDC next month. I’ll be very curious to see how Apple handles the M2 family of Macs, and I’ll certainly be back to breakdown future key rumors and product announcements.